Many sectors have been affected by the global evolution of COVID-19. However, tourism is undoubtedly one of the sectors most affected..
The nature of the tourism sector is based on the movement of people, the traffic restrictions and health measures taken both by the Spanish government and by the governments of the various countries affected. have done enormous damage.
The World Tourism Organisation forecasts a decline in international tourists of between 1% and 3% in 2020, which translates into losses ranging from 27,000 to 45,000 million euros. The slowdown in the tourism sector particularly affects Spain, where it represents around 12% of the national GDP and whose decline could lead to a serious imbalance in our economy.
Hopes for recovery in the "post-coronavirus" scenario
The "post-coronavirus" scenario is particularly uncertain and the changes that may occur in the sector are very varied and disparate. At best, we may be facing a slowdown in the sector, which will gradually recover once the situation stabilises and will continue to grow, as has been the case for years..
On the other hand, changes and new trends are likely to occur as a result of the crisis and the search for resources to overcome this difficult situation. The possibility that restrictions on the movement of people will continue beyond the crisis, tourists' fear of travelling as a result of this situation or the closure of hundreds or thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises that cannot cope with this situation may seriously affect the sector, both quantitatively and qualitatively.
Taking into account the factors mentioned above, there are a large number of possible scenarios, depending on whether the changes that have taken place are temporary or structural. This implies enormous uncertainty as to what direction the tourism sector will take once the crisis is over: whether the contraction of the sector is temporary and passing as a result of the measures adopted to alleviate the situation, or whether, on the contrary, it will be the result of changes in the structure of the tourism sector due to the permanence of these measures beyond the management of the current situation.
However, despite the bad forecasts, businessmen and UNWTO agree:
"Tourism will recover thanks to the resilience it has always shown, and its ability to drive recovery beyond the sector will be essential to revive the economy, especially in countries where tourism is one of the main economic drivers, such as Spain.
However, this recovery depends to a large extent on the willingness of international organisations and governments to propose measures to help alleviate the situation and to support SMEs in particular, as they make up 80% of the tourism sector.
Although it is still too early to know the extent of this crisis and to predict what changes will or may occur in tourism in a "post-coronavirus" scenario, it is clear that the consequences of this situation will pose great challenges for everyone and the recovery of the sector will depend on the efforts of all the actors involved.from companies to governments and international organisations.
