Recently, the Boston Consulting Group has published an interesting reportbased on data from the Coronavirus Resource Center at Johns Hopkins University in the US. The study concludes that the closest scenario for the lifting of the containment measures for Spain will be 1 June at the earliest.The government has declared a state of alarm eleven weeks after the state of alarm was declared by the government.
"We will come out of the crisis with foresight".
The study is based on projections for different countries around the world, which are compared with the experience in Hubei (China), the province where the city of Wuhan, the source of the pandemic, is located. In this area, containment began to be lifted a few days ago, more than ten weeks after the start of containment measures.
Finding solutions through market research and strategic planning
This, of course, is not the only study that has been carried out in this crisis situation. Many companies have put their research teams to work to try to anticipate events. Experience, of course, tells us that In times of global uncertainty like the ones we are going through, data can help us to find solutions for our businesses.
Now, more than ever, it is necessary to anticipate events. For them, marketing and communication provide us with excellent tools, such as market research, strategic plans and marketing plans, which help us to deal with less risk. to a world that will be characterised by a change in the consumption habits we have hitherto internalised.
Estimates for a return to normalcy may vary depending on the situation in each country.
In the case of Spain, the report, which estimates that the peak of the epidemic took place on 4 April, gives a range for the opening of the epidemic between 1 June and 3 July.. In any case, the consultancy firm itself has indicated that with this study is not intended to provide predictions on the duration of the blockade.The report is therefore only a working document, and is not intended to be used to assess the impact on health and society.
Spain was a few days ahead of its European partners and decreed a State of Alarm, and therefore confinement, on 14 March, seven days after the tenth coronavirus fatality. In this chapter, it is worth noting the case of Norway, which decreed the confinement of the population 12 days before the threshold of the tenth death in the country was crossed, which places the Nordic country as one of the best positioned for a return to normality, according to the report.
In the least favourable scenario for Spain, the deadline for lifting the measures would be extended to 3 July. According to the report's estimates, this timeframe would be calculated for each country at eight to 12 weeks from the date of the epidemic peak.. To estimate this timeframe and determine where each country will fall in the range, the consultant's experts take into account the Chinese experience, learning the lessons from the confinement and the measures taken in Hubei.
The methodology used by the consultant estimates that the first window of opportunity for lifting containment measures will occur 10-14 weeks after the start of containment and other containment measures, such as limitation of movement and transports. The report takes into account the time taken by the different countries to establish the confinement of the society, which in the case of China and India occurred on the same day as the tenth death and in most European countries this did not occur until after 10 days in the case of France or the UK or 15 days in Italy.
But they also adjust in each case for the effectiveness of the measures taken by each government and the capacity of each national health system. They assess factors such as the number of hospital beds per capita, deaths from respiratory diseases, how effective government decisions are being and the regulatory quality of each country.
